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A Second Great Depression?
Walrus at 5:48PM, July 23, 2008
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http://useconomy.about.com/od/criticalssues/i/2_great_depress.htm
http://useconomy.about.com/od/grossdomesticproduct/p/1929_Depression.htm

I seriously think we're heading there, with gas and food prices being hiked, we could be heading down the road to another Great Depression in the next 20 years. Maybe less than that. What are you're thoughts on this?
 
last edited on July 14, 2011 4:45PM
kyupol at 6:42PM, July 23, 2008
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Thats why it is in your best interest that you should invest in SURVIVAL.

Some advice:

1) Learn a trade (carpentry, automotive, etc…) that is useful and can be used for bartering your services for goods or other services. Your skill is your currency.

2) Invest in Gold and Silver. Though this talk of depression can be mere speculation and sensationalist, its still good to put some of your assets in Gold and Silver. Just in case. As I'm still a bit skeptical about this whole depression economic collapse thing. The point here is diversification of your portfolio. Put some in the bank, put some under your bed, put some in gold, put some in stocks or mutual funds.

3) Stockpile on storable food and NHPs (natural health products)

4) Invest in a water purifier

5) Try to arm yourself. Guns, machetes, gas masks are the way to go. Also, learn a martial art. Anything as long as you SPAR AND GET YOUR ASS KICKED in the dojo. Dont go to any of those form-based ripoff scam dojos. Its Recommended to learn Brazilian Jujitsu, Muai Thai, or FMA (Filipino Martial Arts… they focus on using knives and sticks) Because God knows if you'd be faced with hungry desperate people looking for food or anything of value… who are ready to KILL YOU for it. At least you might have a fighting chance.

6) Get out of debt. DEBT = SLAVERY.

7) Mend the broken ties with family members whom you have sour relations with. Because you'd need to look out for each other in the event of an economic disaster. That's how the North Koreans, Zimbabweans, Afghans, etc. survive.

8) Exercise. Keep yourself fit. In the event of an economic collapse, you increase your chances of survival if you're fit. Thats how it is. I remember a documentary I watched about a former POW in a Nazi concentration camp. He said that if you're a mama's boy you're guaranteed to DIE. Only the strongest and toughest survive.

9) Become more spiritual and less materialistic. The more materialistic you get, the softer and weak you become.

10) The little things. Like drinking water that isnt cold. Like learning to sleep on a cold floor, like driving without AC on a hot day. What's the purpose? To train you to get used to it. To make your character tough.

NOW UPDATING!!!
last edited on July 14, 2011 1:26PM
Custard Trout at 6:55PM, July 23, 2008
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Kyupol's mixing up economic depression and the apocolypse again.
Hey buddy, you should be a Russian Cosmonaut, and here's why.
last edited on July 14, 2011 12:01PM
ozoneocean at 8:14PM, July 23, 2008
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Yeah… he does that. :(
He needs to come down here to Oz so I can face him in the THUNDERDOME!
 
last edited on July 14, 2011 2:31PM
lothar at 8:43PM, July 23, 2008
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ozoneocean
THUNDERDOME!

2 men enter one man leaves !!!


last edited on July 14, 2011 1:45PM
bravo1102 at 7:36AM, July 24, 2008
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ozoneocean
Yeah… he does that. :(
He needs to come down here to Oz so I can face him in the THUNDERDOME!

You know we're headed for the End of Civilization when the latest Ford Mustang is modeled after the V-8 interceptor in Mad Max.

A friend got a yellow one, the resemblance is scary.

I'd say not a Great Depression, maybe a mediocre one, not as bad as the 1930's but a pretty nasty downturn.

I have my wheelbarrow ready for the devalued currency. I wonder what the snazzy uniform for the rise of facism will look like this time? I'll be disappointed if it's an Arab headdress.

Just think the Great Depression brought us the Marx Brothers and the Three Stooges, Bob Hope and Jack Benny; the Golden Age of Comedy and comics and Science Fiction…
last edited on July 14, 2011 11:33AM
Jellomix at 9:07PM, July 28, 2008
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kyupol
Thats why it is in your best interest that you should invest in SURVIVAL.

Some advice:

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Omg. That's extreme. O_o

I figured in this day and age, we have enough social/economical systems and technology to stay afloat. Sure, we might hit an economical trough (it's inevitable) but it can't be as bad as the Great Depression. We've also learned since then… so the government probably has some procedures prepared for another.

Now excuse me as I do everything on kyupol's list… it's cuz I'm secretly freakishly paranoid. =)

Oh, not to be a sadist, but if there is a depression, at least it'll straighten out the spoiled youth, and maybe teach us a lesson on mass-consumption.
Sig? Yeah, I'll get to it. >_<
last edited on July 14, 2011 1:07PM
lothar at 1:01AM, July 29, 2008
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Jellomix
I figured in this day and age, we have enough social/economical systems and technology to stay afloat. Sure, we might hit an economical trough (it's inevitable) but it can't be as bad as the Great Depression. We've also learned since then… so the government probably has some procedures prepared for another.


i'm sure Kyupol would agree with you
last edited on July 14, 2011 1:45PM
bravo1102 at 8:18AM, July 29, 2008
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lothar
Jellomix
I figured in this day and age, we have enough social/economical systems and technology to stay afloat. Sure, we might hit an economical trough (it's inevitable) but it can't be as bad as the Great Depression. We've also learned since then… so the government probably has some procedures prepared for another.


i'm sure Kyupol would agree with you

Lothar, I agree with Jellomix. The gov't does have procedures in place in case of emergency. OEM is wonderful. Let's just hope they screw up the more oppressive stuff like they did in Katrina. (At least until they had to call in federal law enforcement to stop the looting) This is the government after all. And all you need is a few ACLU lawyers and someone waving around the Constitution and seperation of powers and the whole thing would be overruled.

The USA did not have riots and chaos (or a military coup) during the 1930s. We (narrowly) avoided it and it'll happen again like it's happened every few decades before that going back to the early 19th Century.
last edited on July 14, 2011 11:33AM
jmt at 10:00PM, Aug. 1, 2008
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if we can get our taxes backed off a bit, and start drilling, we will have this “depression” mess turned around in no time.

By the ways, I do not see many people changing their habits Despite this recession. the foo fighters were in town last weekend. full house. People are still paying for tickets to go see the pittsburgh pirates for cryin out loud. The dark knight is still getting flooded by people at the movie theater. I think all this recession thing might be blown out of proportion a little bit.

me? I just bought a good old fashion american muscle car. That is what I think of it. awful gas milage, but it is really really fast.
last edited on July 14, 2011 1:09PM
lothar at 1:57PM, Aug. 2, 2008
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jmt
me? I just bought a good old fashion american muscle car. That is what I think of it. awful gas milage, but it is really really fast.

i can just imagine a dinasaur saying something similar . “skrew all this ice age stuff. i'm big, i'm strong , i'm an invincible thunder lizard !!”
last edited on July 14, 2011 1:45PM
bravo1102 at 6:45AM, Aug. 3, 2008
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lothar
jmt
me? I just bought a good old fashion american muscle car. That is what I think of it. awful gas milage, but it is really really fast.

i can just imagine a dinasaur saying something similar . “skrew all this ice age stuff. i'm big, i'm strong , i'm an invincible thunder lizard !!”

As much as I agree with your point, lothar, your mixed metaphor destroyed its credibility.

Are lessons on paleontology and geology necessary here? Let's just say that a lot of junior high kids I know would laugh at you (what a dummy.etc, the Ice Age happened millions of years after the extinction of the dinosaurs etc,) and that stands to damage your argument.

Besides Gary Larson and the Far Side has proven that the dinosaurs became extinct because they smoked cigarettes. ;)
last edited on July 14, 2011 11:33AM
jmt at 7:03AM, Aug. 3, 2008
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You're comparing high gas prices and a depression to the ice age? Ha-ha.

And yeah I do believe we are big enough and our economy is strong enough to get us through this “recession” if we are even in one. It might even be big enough to get the whole stupid world through one. America is responsible for the biggest most robust economy in the entire history of mankind. Trust me, we will get through this little bump, it might take a while but we will do it. Nothing a history book, and a little perspective can't help you with.

Long live the muscle car!
last edited on July 14, 2011 1:09PM
lothar at 4:05PM, Aug. 3, 2008
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that might have been true in the past , when America actually had a manufacturing base and exports and stuff like that, but today the American economy is 75% based on consumer spending . it's a house of cards.

and btw , there was more than one ice age , i was refering to the probable global cooling that would resu;lt from a meteor impact in the late cretaceous period
last edited on July 14, 2011 1:45PM
bravo1102 at 10:15AM, Aug. 7, 2008
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lothar
and btw , there was more than one ice age , i was refering to the probable global cooling that would resu;lt from a meteor impact in the late cretaceous period

That's not the Ice Age. It's a period of global cooling, not the growth of the ice shelf. In fact there is evidence that some dinosaurs survived in cold. It was probably the dust (or a nuclear war among the intelligent dinosaurs)

The US economy is based on a house of cards. The US industrial base is in several other countries but not the USA.

Having a gas guzzler is like being the grasshopper rather than the ant in the old fable. Live for today and when the fecal matter hits the aerial oscelator you're fucked.

There is still too much infrastruture around these days for another Great Depression. It has been postulated for the last 20 years and many thought it would have occured already. Along with all the seaboard cities being under water from the ice caps melting. It was supposed to have happened already. I guess it's in same place as my flying car and jet pack? Myopic forecasts?
last edited on July 14, 2011 11:33AM
lothar at 10:23AM, Aug. 7, 2008
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infrastruture built to run on cheap oil
last edited on July 14, 2011 1:45PM
bravo1102 at 10:45AM, Aug. 9, 2008
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Well the price of oil has dropped $25 per barrel in the past week and the US dollar is stronger than it's been in 6 years. With increased drilling the price of oil could go below $90 a barrel.

The world was supposed to run out of oil before the 21st Century. The currently known supplies should last another century at least.

The rumors of the demise of the world economy are greatly exaggerated.

I lived through all the doomsayers of the 1970s and 1980s the doom has yet to strike and the forecasters were wrong. :)

This is like prophecies of the Apocolypse. Entertaining, but not worth losing sleep over.
last edited on July 14, 2011 11:33AM
ozoneocean at 11:13AM, Aug. 9, 2008
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bravo1102
The rumors of the demise of the world economy are greatly exaggerated.
I wouldn't be tooo cocky. It's rumours that run things. That's what made the oil price go up and what made the dollar fall when it did ;)
We can always look at the long view and the peaks and troughs will always smooth out to nothing when we do, but people live and die in the short term so it does matter.

The world economy is more run now by short term skittish speculators than ever before, that means bigger troughs and higher peaks more of the time in more places…

I don't think you could have a great depression again, at least not for long. But you can still have times just s bad in other ways, even if it's fragmented and hits people in different classes and different industries in unique ways, like it's doing in the U.S. and other places in the world right now.
 
last edited on July 14, 2011 2:32PM
bravo1102 at 9:46AM, Aug. 10, 2008
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Who's being cocky? I'm being a realist instead of an alarmist. Every down turn is a disaster and the sky is falling. I remember the downturn of 1987 and went over all the bubbles, panics and depressions in world History when I taught school. (Some books named Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds as well as Why People Believe Weird Things) It's human nature. As long as people are human these things will not change, just record them, yawn and realize there is nothing new under the sun and survive with style.

I've seen this too many times and read up on economic bubbles and downturns of the past. Those who invested wisely and didn't speculate rode it out very fine. Where ever there is loss, there is opportunity. Yes, grieve for the one third of Europe that died in 1347-1349 but exault for the surviors who suddenly had more than they had ever imagined they could have. People will die and live in the short term regardless of what any investor does, but life goes on as it has for millenia. There is nothing new under the sun and we have to accept reality rather than spreading doom and gloom on every cloudy day that the sun will never shine again.

Commodities rise and go down, that's that goddamn free market thing. However, the free market has to equalize itself or it shoots itself in the foot. Remember that the price of corn in Egypt from the time of the pharaohs until the Roman emperors had the same role in the Ancient World. Now we have the price of oil and corn and same trend is playing out. Some are fools because they think using less will help (like eating less? that's called starvation) where increasing production has always solved the problem without decreasing population and allows for growth. (Agricultural revolution. Opening up Anatolia to farming during Ancient times etc.)

You see I like being happy, others may look for everything they can to make themselves unhappy because deep down they may not believe they are worthy of being happy. Maybe that's the basis of what makes for being mentally healthy. :) But then I am a raving lunatic so what do I know? ;)

last edited on July 14, 2011 11:33AM
ozoneocean at 6:48PM, Aug. 10, 2008
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bravo1102
Who's being cocky? I'm being a realist instead of an alarmist.
I think you missed the whole content of what I posted…

—-
LeFarce, that stuff is not appropriate. I've sent you a warning now since you saw fit to repeat it.
 
last edited on July 14, 2011 2:32PM
lefarce at 11:24PM, Aug. 10, 2008
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Someone
LeFarce, that stuff is not appropriate. I've sent you a warning now since you saw fit to repeat it.
ok. Wont happen again~

 
last edited on July 14, 2011 1:33PM
bravo1102 at 11:26AM, Aug. 11, 2008
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ozoneocean
bravo1102
Who's being cocky? I'm being a realist instead of an alarmist.
I think you missed the whole content of what I posted…



No, I just ignored it because it wasn't worth a bucket of warm spit. ;)

Economies have always been based on rumors and speculation (Egyptian corn Ancient Chinese silk and rice, Dutch tulips etc.) It has not changed! We're still here and always will be. Without changing the very structure of human interaction for any need (not even going back to barter would) you won't change what is going on. It's not bigger or smaller than it ever has been. Per capita it still effects the same populations and the same small groups have the same influences. For every few rumor mongers there is a level headed person who keeps the market from totally self-destructing.

You're looking at that Siberian Elm in front of you rather than the forest that goes on to the horizon.

last edited on July 14, 2011 11:33AM
ozoneocean at 4:04AM, Aug. 13, 2008
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bravo1102
You're looking at that Siberian Elm in front of you rather than the forest that goes on to the horizon.
Quite the opposite. You're looking at the green patches on the planet earth from space, not even seeing the forests that make them up, let alone the trees within it. ;)

Like I say:
me
We can always look at the long view and the peaks and troughs will always smooth out to nothing when we do, but people live and die in the short term so it does matter.
It's just flippant to say that just because it's all the same in the end that the short term is nothing: a person's life is nothing in the course of human history, which will go on whether they're part of it or not, but it matters a lot to them.

Besides, information and money moves faster now than it has ever done, so your comparisons a a little wide of the mark in regards to my point. I say that there WILL be NOone big problem like the great depression, but there's much more potential for lots of little ones to hit different industries and classes specifically, and while that's not any sort of blip on the overall mythical graph of great progress and people in different classes, countries and industries won't know they're even happening, they're still extremely painful for the little individuals they affect. Fatal at times.

Now, feel free to keep reading that in completely the wrong way… something like:
“No, I think this time it's gonna be reaaaaaly bad, this is the big one man. You don't know! It's all over!!!!! And if it doesn't come now, oh man, it's just around the corner… 0_o”
lol!

Yeah… if I was saying that then your replies would probably fit nicely.
 
last edited on July 14, 2011 2:32PM
bravo1102 at 3:35PM, Aug. 13, 2008
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Have I ever mentioned how much sense you make and how thick headed I can be?

I finally get it. Thank you for being patient with me re-explaining your points so that I could finally understand.

(DISCLAIMER: The above is not sarcastic in any way, shape or form)

:)

One thought; since things occur so much faster wouldn't that mean the cycles revolve faster so that the long term no longer would occur over multiple life-times? And possibly cause sensory overload? 8-o
last edited on July 14, 2011 11:33AM
ozoneocean at 10:12PM, Aug. 14, 2008
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Hahaha,

Sorry if I appeared rude when I posted, I can tend to get short with people when I feel they don't understand what I'm trying to say and I apologise for that :)

————-
Heh, I think it just causes more little blips in the graph. And by faster, it's more like… When a financial crisis occurs with housing in the U.S. it bites the rest of the world via the finance industry in a matter of weeks instead of months like it might have once before… In fact normally that loan crisis might once have been localised to the U.S. only and only affected the rest of the world indirectly, but because speculators have traded in that debt world wide it made borrowing very expensive all over the place.
 
last edited on July 14, 2011 2:32PM

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